"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off as well. The bookmaker will wait before first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put the same amount on the next game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the second game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to complete the second game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each one of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. New88 'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a good replacement for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out from the two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point away from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."