"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you wish to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put an equal amount on the second game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the next game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books won't allow you to fill in the next game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split but the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux and that means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a great replacement for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the second bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have previously seen, once you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out of your two. đăng nhập new88 of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."