The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting it doesn't should be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to remove the effect of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.
Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half the time. thabet center , however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The problem for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to let you parlay first half to game. Should they do let you do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game in which the total is less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. This type of bet, however, needed that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win when you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
Assuming you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the medial side to the total in exactly the same game, because a growing number of are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.