The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on if the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't should be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to remove the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the initial half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each and every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
Initially, this were a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of every parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of among the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to let you parlay first half to game. Should they do let you do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can give you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an opinion on the side or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win when you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In New88 , if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will never be shut out, in that case your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
Should you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the medial side to the total in the same game, because progressively more are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.